Forex Pros – The week ending February 11 saw the U.S. dollar rally to a one-month high against the Swiss franc as better-than-expected U.S. data lifted the outlook for U.S. growth, while weak inflation data weighed on the franc.
USD/CHF hit 0.9775 on Friday, the pair’s highest since January 11; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.973 by close of trade, jumping 2.06% over the week.
The pair is likely to find support at 0.9573, Thursday’s low and resistance at 0.9775, Friday’s high and a one-month high.
On Thursday, U.S. government data showed that initial claims for jobless benefits fell last week to the lowest level since July 2008. They dropped by 36,000, more than forecast, to 383,000, Labor Department figures showed.
Meanwhile, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment rose to 75.1, the highest level since June, from 74.2 in January.
Elsewhere, data showed that Swiss inflation unexpectedly slowed in January as the franc’s appreciation helped push down the cost of imported goods.
The Federal Statistics Office said consumer prices fell 0.4%, while the costs of imported goods decreased 1.9%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile components like food and energy, fell 0.7% in the month.
In the week ahead, the U.S. is to publish official data in inflation and retail sales while the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent monetary policy meeting. The U.S. is also to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims.
Meanwhile, Switzerland is to publish data on economic expectations.
Ahead of the coming week, Forex Pros has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday as there are no relevant events on this day.
Tuesday, February 15
The U.S. is to publish government data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The nation is also to publish a report on manufacturing activity in the state of New York as well as data on foreign investments in the U.S. and a report on import prices.
Wednesday, February 16
The U.S. is to publish official data on producer price inflation, a leading indicator of consumer inflation. The nation is also to publish government data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity, as well as reports on housing starts and industrial production.
Later in the day, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent monetary policy committee meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced the vote on where to set interest rates.
Thursday, February 17
The U.S. is to publish its weekly report in initial jobless claims, a leading indicator of economic health. The nation is also to publish official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for a majority of overall inflation and a report on manufacturing activity in the state of Philadelphia.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, is to testify before Congress; his comments will be closely watched as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
Also Thursday, the ZEW Centre for Economic Research is to publish a report on Swiss economic expectations.
Friday, February 18
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to deliver a speech at a public engagement; his remarks will be closely scrutinized for any hints to the possible future direction of monetary policy.
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Article source: http://www.benzinga.com/11/02/856116/forex-usdchf-weekly-outlook-february-14-18
