Archive for October 2007

AI: Alpha and Index Funds

Author: Bill Byrnes

A current theme among Wall Street wealth managers is for individual investors to have index funds as their core holdings and to focus the remainder of their assets in high alpha investments, which will produce returns not correlated with the market.

A quick digression for those of you who aren’t familiar with alpha and beta. In traditional finance, return not correlated with a broad market index, such as the S& P 500, is referred to as alpha.

The return which is correlated to the market is beta. An index fund should have the same return (positive or negative) as the index it mimics. (One of the controversies surrounding some ETFs is their performance has not tracked their underlying index.)

The theory behind Alpha and Index Funds is multi fold: 1. the major indices are a good place for an investor to be, both from a risk and return perspective; 2. you can’t outperform the major indices, so don’t waste your time; 3. find those investment niches with high alphas to increase your return and reduce the overall risk in your portfolio.

Even if you don’t subscribe to this theory, you might find it an interesting exercise to review the alphas — every investment has one — of your current holdings. They will tell you something about the correlation and diversification of your portfolio.

Where to focus your alpha energy? Investments in real estate, commodities, and energy are less correlated with the stock market (although I’ve never thought commodities were suitable for individual investors).

The Wall Street pros also recommend stock fund mangers who have unique strategies and can demonstrate a high alpha relative to the market (and, of course, positive relative performance).

Ask your investment adviser for suggestions. The alphas for individual mutual funds (and individual stocks) are available from some brokers and online premium services.

Alpha and index fund investing makes a great deal of sense. You know what to expect in terms of risk and return when you invest in an index fund.

Having a portion of your portfolio in index funds leaves you free to concentrate your investment time and energy (think alpha waves) on those investments which can make a difference.

Picking high alpha investments, which by their nature are less correlated with the stock market, should reduce the risk/volatility of your portfolio and, depending upon the investment, provide above market returns.

Article Tags: Stock Market, Mutual Fund, Index Fund Investing, Alpha Investment

Article Source: http://www.articlesbase.com/finance-articles/ai-alpha-and-index-funds-229421.html

About the Author:

Bill Byrnes is co-founder of MUTUALdecision, top mutual fundsa, providing investors with data on the top mutual funds, and author of the MUTUALdecision Blog. He’s been CEO, chairman and served on the board of directors of several public and private companies. He holds MBA and JD degrees and is a Chartered Financial Analyst with over 30 years experience in the investment industry.

Forex Leverage: A Double-Edged Sword

One of the reasons why so many people are attracted to trading forex compared to other financial instruments is that with forex, you can usually get much higher leverage than you would with stocks. While many traders have heard of the word leverage, few have a clue about what leverage is, how leverage works, and how leverage can directly impact their bottom line. (To learn more, see How does leverage work in the forex market?)

What is leverage?
Leverage involves borrowing a certain amount of the money needed to invest in something. In the case of forex, that money is usually borrowed from a broker. Forex trading does offer high leverage in the sense that for an initial margin requirement, a trader can build up – and control – a huge amount of money.

To calculate margin-based leverage, divide the total transaction value by the amount of margin you are required to put up. (For more insight, check out Margin Trading.)


Margin-Based Leverage =
Total Value of Transaction
Margin Required

For example, if you are required to deposit 1% of the total transaction value as margin and you intend to trade one standard lot of USD/CHF which is equivalent to US$100,000, the margin required would be US$1,000. Thus, your margin-based leverage will be 100:1 (100,000/1,000). For a margin requirement of just 0.25%, the margin-based leverage will be 400:1, using the same formula.

Margin-Based Leverage Expressed as Ratio Margin Required of Total Transaction Value
400:1 0.25%
200:1 0.50%
100:1 1.00%
50:1 2.00%

However, margin-based leverage does not necessarily affect one’s risks. Whether a trader is required to put up 1% or 2% of the transaction value as margin may not influence his or her profits or losses. This is because investor can always attribute more than the required margin for any position. What you need to look at is the real leverage, not margin-based leverage.

To calculate the real leverage you are currently using, simply divide the total face value of your open positions by your trading capital.


Real Leverage =
Total Value of Transaction
Total Trading Capital

For example, if you have $10,000 in your account, and you open a $100,000 position (which is equivalent to one standard lot), you will be trading with a 10 times leverage on your account (100,000/10,000). If you trade two standard lots, which is worth $200,000 in face value with $10,000 in your account, then your leverage on the account is 20 times (200,000/10,000).

This also means that the margin-based leverage is equal to the maximum real leverage a trader can use. And since most traders do not use their entire accounts as margin for each of their trades, their real leverage tends to differ from their margin-based leverage.

Leverage in Forex Trading
In trading, we monitor the currency movements in pips, which is the smallest change in currency price, and that could be in the second or fourth decimal place of a price, depending on the currency pair. However, these movements are really just fractions of a cent. For example, when a currency pair like the GBP/USD moves 100 pips from 1.9500 to 1.9600, that is just a $0.01 move of the exchange rate.

This is why currency transactions must be carried out in big amounts, allowing these minute price movements to be translated into decent profits when magnified through the use of leverage. When you deal with a large amount like $100,000, small changes in the price of the currency can result in significant profits or losses.

When trading forex, you are given the freedom and the flexibility to select your real leverage amount based on your trading style, personality and money management preferences.

Risk of Excessive Real Leverage
Real leverage has the potential to enlarge your profits or losses by the same magnitude. The greater the amount of leverage on capital you apply, the higher the risk that you will assume. Note that this risk is not necessarily related to margin-based leverage although it can influence if a trader is not careful.

Let’s illustrate this point with an example (See Figure 1).

Both Trader A and Trader B have a trading capital of US$10,000, and they trade with a broker that requires a 1% margin deposit. After doing some analysis, both of them agree that USD/JPY is hitting a top and should fall in value. Therefore, both of them short the USD/JPY at 120.

Trader A chooses to apply 50 times real leverage on this trade by shorting US$500,000 worth of USD/JPY (50 x $10,000) based on his $10,000 trading capital. Because USD/JPY stands at 120, one pip of USD/JPY for one standard lot is worth approximately US$8.30, so one pip of USD/JPY for five standard lots is worth approximately US$41.50. If USD/JPY rises to 121, Trader A will lose 100 pips on this trade, which is equivalent to a loss of US$4,150. This single loss will represent a whopping 41.5% of his total trading capital.



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Trader B is a more careful trader and decides to apply five times real leverage on this trade by shorting US$50,000 worth of USD/JPY (5 x $10,000) based on his $10,000 trading capital. That $50,000 worth of USD/JPY equals to just one-half of 1 standard lot. If USD/JPY rises to 121, Trader B will lose 100 pips on this trade, which is equivalent to a loss of $415. This single loss represents 4.15% of his total trading capital.

Refer to the chart below to see how the trading accounts of these two traders compare after the 100-pip loss.

- Trader A Trader B
Trading Capital $10,000 $10,000
Real Leverage Used 50 times 5 times
Total Value of Transaction $500,000 $50,000
In the Case of a 100-Pip Loss -$4,150 -$415
% Loss of Trading Capital 41.5% 4.15%
% of Trading Capital Remaining 58.5% 95.8%
Figure 1: All figures in U.S. dollars

Excessive Leverage Can Kill
With a smaller amount of real leverage applied on each trade, you can afford to give your trade more breathing space by setting a wider but reasonable stop and avoiding risking too much of your money. A highly leveraged trade can quickly deplete your trading account if it goes against you as you will rack up greater losses due to bigger lot sizes. Keep in mind that leverage is totally flexible and customizable to each trader’s needs. Having an aim of trading profitably is not about making your millions by the end of this month or this year.

For more on trading this market, see the Forex Market tutorial.
By Grace Cheng, See Grace’s Forex blog at www.gracecheng.com,
Access Investopedia’s Forex Advisor FREE Report – The 5 Things That Move The Currency Market

Grace Cheng is a forex trader, creator of the PowerFX Course and author of “7 Winning Strategies for Trading Forex” (2007, Harriman House). This revealing book explains how traders can use various market conditions to their advantage by tailoring a strategy to suit each one. The book is a perfect complement to the PowerFX Course. The PowerFX Course, designed for both new and current traders, teaches tools and trading approaches that combine technicals, fundamentals and the psychology of trading forex. It also includes Grace’s proprietary tips and tricks. Grace’s works have been published in The Trader’s Journal, Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, Smart Investor and other leading trading/investment publications.

Visit her popular forex blog at www.GraceCheng.com.

Win at Forex Trading – the Major Problem you Must Confront to Enjoy Success

Author: Kelly Price

There is one problem that most forex traders fail to come to terms with and lose and its operating in an unstructured environment – this is the major underlying reason traders lose, so lets it explain it and its significance in more detail.

In normal society we confirm to rules and laws they govern our lives and those of our fellow citizens, were used to them and we conform to them.

When a forex trader trades, he has to operate in an unstructured environment and create his own rules to live and survive by.

This sounds easy enough to achieve, however nothing could be further from the truth – it’s very hard and most traders simply can’t achieve it.

Let’s take a closer look at the problems associated with operating in an unstructured environment.

1. Taking Responsibility For Your Actions.

This means taking charge of your destiny and most people simply cannot accept this responsibility.

They want the comfort of having someone to hold their hand and blame if thinks go wrong.

Problem is if you don’t accept responsibility, you won’t win – no one else will make you rich in Forex trading, you’re all on your own.

2. You Have To Create a Set of Rules to Survive

The market which you confront is all powerful, it moves as and when it wants – it’s always right and you can only be wrong .

Again, this causes major psychological problems for traders – we all hate being wrong, but in this instance you have to accept the market is right ALL the time, if you don’t you will run loses and the market will destroy you.

Most traders get frustrated and break their rules, or create a new set as they lose and end up chasing their tail. If you create rules you must have the discipline to apply them and most traders simply lack the mindset to do this.

3. The Work Ethic Does Not Apply

Most people try and overcome losses with a higher work rate.

After all the more you put in the more you get out. They assume if they acquire more knowledge or trade more often, their profitability will increase but the markets won’t reward effort.

You get your reward for being RIGHT and that’s it in forex trading, not the effort you put in.

4. Forex Traders Need To Be Anti Social!

We don’t mean you have to be rude to anyone – but you need to keep yourself to yourself and stay away from the pack and its opinions when trading forex.

Remember 95% of forex traders lose!

We find this uncomfortable.

After all, were pack animals and since stone age times we have sought comfort and belonging with others of our species. When we go against the majority opinion, we feel uncomfortable, as were simply not used to it.

Operating in the forex markets is far harder than many people think and most traders are simply unprepared for the mental problems that it confronts them with.

You will hear often that it is mindset more than method that contributes to success in the markets and its true.

If you have ever wondered why traders find it so hard to trade with discipline, this article may have helped you see why and given you an insight into what you need to do to achieve currency trading success?

Article Source: http://www.articlesbase.com/investing-articles/win-at-forex-trading-the-major-problem-you-must-confront-to-enjoy-success-226574.html

About the Author:

NEW! FREE 2 x CRITICAL TRADER PDFS – NEWSLETTERS – TRADING ALERTS + MORE

On all aspects of becoming a profitable trader including: Free critical trader PDFS, and more FREE Forex Education visit our website at:
http://www.learncurrencytradingonline.com/index.html

Forecasting Forex With Fundamental Analysis an Introduction

Author: Monica Hendrix

If you are forecasting forex with fundamental analysis you are effectively looking at the supply and demand situation and trying to judge which way prices go. Forex prices respond to the long term fundamentals but you need to avoid the errors most traders make to succeed.

What is Forex Fundamental analysis?

Studies all the facts in relation to the supply and demand situation of the currency and these are numerous and include:

Political factors

Interest rate outlook

Economic health of the economy

Government economic policy

And more make up the supply and demand picture

These are the facts and all traders see them but they draw different conclusions from what they see – this is the problem for any Forex trader and a problem for the trader following fundamentals.

A simple equation for market movement is:

Economic Fundamentals + Human perception = market movement

It is a fact that the markets do reflect the forex fundamentals but traders are emotional so they will push prices to far either up or down.

It’s a fact that markets tend to collapse when the fundamentals are most bullish and rally when they are most bearish. So you really need to follow investor psychology as well if you want to succeed.

News Is Discounted Instantly

Today we live in a world where the supply and demand fundamentals are available to all at the click of a mouse and they immediately show up in price action, so if you try and trade a news story, its been discounted and your playing catch up.

The news also relfects the greed and fear of the participants and can be misleading. Will Rodgers once said:

” I only believe what I read in the papers”

He was joking but the maount of people who take what the news says witout questioning its logic is huge.

For most traders trying to trade the fundamentals is impossible, as prices move too quickly and investor psychology constantly wrong foots them, as prices move opposite to the fundamentals, because investor psychology is emotionally driven.

Save Time and See the Whole Picture

The easiest way to trade is via technical analysis and forex charts.

You have the forex fundamentals covered as forex technical analysis simply assumes they show up in price action straightway and in today’s world of lightening fast communications, this is truer than ever before.

Furthermore, you get to see graphically how investors perceive them – this is very important and gives the overall picture.

A trader using forex charts does not try and work out where prices may go, he sees where they are and acts on the reality as he sees it.

This method is less time consuming, keeps your emotions out of trading and lets you trade on the reality of price.

A Surprising Forex Fact

Forex fundamental analysis is hard for most traders and although news is faster, better and more numerous than ever before a simple fact will illustrate why it won’t help you:

The ratio of winning traders is still 5% and it was at this level 50 years ago – despite all the advances in fundamental forecasting.

A Better Way to Win

It won’t make you a better trader or help you make money it will simply consume your time and see you lose. Trade via forex charts and you will see the whole picture and be able to spot profitable trading opportunities and act upon them and enjoy currency trading success.

Forex fundamental analysis is hard and technical analysis for most traders is the better option?

Article Source: http://www.articlesbase.com/investing-articles/forecasting-forex-with-fundamental-analysis-an-introduction-226577.html

About the Author:

NEW! FREE 2 x CRITICAL TRADER PDFS – NEWSLETTERS – TRADING ALERTS + MORE

On all aspects of becoming a profitable trader including: Free critical trader PDFS, and more FREE Forex Education visit our website at:
http://www.learncurrencytradingonline.com/index.html

How to Get Affordable Life Insurance That Will Meet your Needs

Author: Joe Stewart

Life insurance is one of those monthly expenses where you somtimes scratch your head and ask yourself “is this really necessary”? Well, the best way to get an answer to that question is to not ask yourself, ask your wife and kids or whatever loved ones that you are responsible for or care about. The reason that I say this is because these are the people that are going to be affected by whether you are insured or not. To suddenly have the breadwinner of the home gone with or without notice can instantly change everyone’s lives and, in some cases, instantly place them into poverty. Don’t you think that your loved ones would have a hard enough time coping with your loss without having to deal with financial stress, not to mention your burial expenses?

If you don’t already have life insurance you need to get a policy immediately. The most affordable life insurance that you can buy is called “Term Life Insurance”. You can buy a policy for a specific period of time, such as ten or twenty years or whatever your needs may be.

Before you buy your life insurance you need to determine approximately how much your loved ones will need to survive in your absence. You don’t want to change their lives any more than you absolutely have to. If you have children you’ll need to provide enough coverage for them until the youngest child is through college. This is something that you’d be better served by sitting down with an insurance agent in order to determine exactly how ???
Article Source: http://www.articlesbase.com/finance-articles/how-to-get-affordable-life-insurance-that-will-meet-your-needs-227517.html

About the Author:
Stop! Learn More About Cheap Life Insurance Options And Even Get Free Term Life Insurance Quotes Right Now At TheLifeInsuranceGuys.com or by clicking on Affordable Life Insurance

Joe Stewart Is A Former Life & Health Agent That Now Works Independently.